Calentamiento Global

calentamiento global, global warming, cambio climático, climate change, enviroment, energy

Aznar primer reclamo de la Feria de los “contrarians”


Como lo ves, la segunda feria de los negadores del calentamiento global “contrarians” que se va a desarrollar en Nueva York del 8 a 10 de marzo usa a Aznar como primer reclamo para su encuentro. A pesar de que en la presentación del libro de su amigo Vaclav Klaus, afirmaba que no sabia nada de este asunto. Debe haber seguido un curso acelerado.

Esta feria se organizo por primera vez el marzo pasado para contestar el útimo informe del IPCC y el evento lo pone en marcha el Heartland Institute, centro de estudios que tiene como objetivo el uso del libre comercio para la solución de los problemas sociales. Podemos ver como segundo de abordo a Vaclav Klaus, presidente checo y actual presidente de la UE, ( vaya fichaje ) y última pareja política  de nuestro ex-presidente.

En el faldon del cartel de la convocatoria podemos ver  la relación de los centros de estudios “neocon” y de aquellos que financia la EXXON y que tambien jugaron un papel importante en la defensa de la tabaqueras.

Si firmas la famosa Oregon Petition tienes un 20% de descuento en la inscripción para la fiesta. El año pasado pagaban 1000 dólares a quien hablara en el encuentro.  Parece que han abandonado el listado que iniciaron en la anterior edición después del éxito obtenido.

Espero que Aznar les explique porqué ratificó su gobierno el Protocolo de Kyoto, por mucho que luego lo incumpliera ampliamente.

20 enero 2009 - Posted by | Calentamiento global

13 comentarios »

  1. Pues mira, esta vez estoy de acuerdo contigo. Yo creo que los políticos no pintan nada en este asunto. No pinta nada Aznar, ni Al Gore tampoco.

    Lo que pasa es que si los alarmistas podéis actuar en forma de campaña política, censuras incluidas, parece un poco abusivo protestar cuando lo hacen los demás. ¿Permiso divino, o como es eso?

    Comentario por arfslfigs | 21 enero 2009 | Responder

    • Pués mira ahí estan todas tus fuentes cubiertas de gloria

      Comentario por impulsoverde | 21 enero 2009 | Responder

  2. Hola impulsoverde:

    Siguiendo la vieja máxima de “en la guerra como en la guerra”, veo que te apañas muy bien estigmatizando a quienes no comulgan con lo del cambio global del calentamiento climático que enfria el planeta. Resumiendo dices:

    Conferencia internacional sobre el cambio climático = Feria.

    Quienes no se tragan la rueda de molino del calentamiento global= negadores o contrarians

    A los políticos predicadores del cambio climático se les da el premio Nobel, a los otros ni se les consiente que hablen.

    Los negadores son neocon pagados por las petroleras y los muy malvados encima defendían la bondad del tabaco, toma del frasco Nolasco.

    Visto eso, me reafirmo en mi derecho a denominar lo que tu defientes como “acojonamiento climático” y a quienes predican el acojonamiento climatico les llamo “acojonadores climáticos” y autenticas “escopetas de feria” porque mira que fallais en vuestras predicciones.

    Tiene bemoles que estando la cosa como está, resulte que no solo no haya calentamiento sino que entremos en una etapa de enfriamiento global pagando un potosí para evitar el calentamiento espurio y bien remunerado.

    Un cordial saludo de un negacionista esceptico y que considera que este terrible juego pasa de castaño oscuro.

    Por cierto me se olvidaba, que hablando de financiaciones podríamos poner los miles de millones de euros o dólares que se envainan los acojonadores climáticos y que salen de mi bolsillo y del de los demas paganos.

    Por cierto, no se le olvide comentar la terrible noticia del posible desprendimiento de la placa no se cuantos de la Antartida por culpa del calentamiento efriado global.

    Un cordial saludo
    antonio Javier Vicente Gil

    Comentario por Antonio Javier Vicente Gil | 21 enero 2009 | Responder

  3. ……. y no olvidemos que la verdad es la verdad la diga la petrolera X o el porquero de Agamenon.

    Comentario por Antonio Javier Vicente Gil | 21 enero 2009 | Responder

  4. Pero bueno, ¿qué argumento es ese? ¿Acaso no hacen campañas los verdes? ¿Acaso no tienen “centros de estudios” y redes de científicos para lo suyo? ¿Que otra cosa es Hansen que campaña pura, con las mayores burradas anticientíficas que puedan imaginarse?

    ¿Vamos a aprender alguna vez que en ciencia (y en lógica) no se atiende a las (supuestas) motivaciones de quien argumenta, sino al argumento y los datos? Pues eso, tú a lo tuyo: el argumento ad hominem y la censura. Y después ven a decirnos que es ciencia. Lo malo ea que cada vez se nota más que lo vuestro es política, y nada tiene que ver con la ciencia. Ya, ni disimular un poquito.

    Mira, ciencia es esto:

    Es evidente el enorme esfuerzo que hacen los alarmistas para no enterarse de los problemas con las mediciones de temperatura. Ahora bien, uno puede querer saber lo que pasa, o no quererlo saber. Y si quiere saber, lo único que puede hacer es escuchar a las dos partes. Esto es así desde que el mundo es mundo.

    Pero escuchar a las dos partes no es tan fácil como parece. O mejor dicho, sí es fácil, pero solo en algunos sitios de una de las partes. Porque la parte “alarmista” usa la censura como herramienta de trabajo. En cambio en la parte “escéptica” sí hay sitios decentes donde se admite la discusión hasta las útimas consecuencias. Y no solo la discusión en sus sitios, sino la discusión pública. Por ejemplo el dr. Roy Spencer (sí, ese tan malo) ha retado hace un mes a cualquier científico climático, y especialmente a cualquier modelador climático, a discutir la cuestión clave de la realimentación contra la inducción, respecto al vapor de agua. Sin respuesta, como siempre.

    ¿Queremos enterarnos de lo que pasa con las temperaturas? ¿Queremos enterarnos de qué pegas les ven las que las ponen en cuestión? ¿O es que resulta que escuchar al discrepante es “confundir”, como si estuviéramos en la URSS, o en la Edad Media?

    Realclimate and Disinformation on UHI (Efecto isla Urbana)
    by Steve McIntyre on January 20th, 2009

    In a recent CNN interview discussed at RC here, Joe D’Aleo (meteorólogo) said:

    Those global data sets are contaminated by the fact that two-thirds of the globe’s stations dropped out in 1990. Most of them rural and they performed no urban adjustment. And, Lou, you know, and the people in your studio know that if they live in the suburbs of New York City, it’s a lot colder in rural areas than in the city. Now we have more urban effect in those numbers reflecting — that show up in that enhanced or exaggerated warming in the global data set.

    Gavin Schmidt (científico de la NASA) excoriated this claim as follows:

    D’Aleo is misdirecting through his teeth here. … he also knows that urban heat island effects are corrected for in the surface records, and he also knows that this doesn’t effect ocean temperatures, and that the station dropping out doesn’t affect the trends at all (you can do the same analysis with only stations that remained and it makes no difference). Pure disinformation.

    Later in the comments (#167), an RC reader inquired about UHI adjustments, noting the lack of discusison of this point as follows:

    #167/ In all of the above posts there is no mention of the urban heat island effect, nor of the effect of rural station drop out nor of the effect the GISS data manipulation has on surface temperature. Why is that?

    To which Gavin replied:

    [Response: Because each of these ‘issues’ are non-issues, simply brought up to make people like you think there is something wrong. The UHI effect is real enough, but it is corrected for – and in any case cannot effect ocean temperatures, retreating glaciers or phenological changes (all of which confirm significant warming). The station drop out ‘effect’ is just fake, and if you don’t like GISS, then use another analysis – it doesn’t matter. – gavin]

    Neither CRU nor NOAA have archived any source code for their calculations, so it is impossible to know for sure exactly what they do. However, I am unaware of any published documents by either of these agencies that indicate that they “correct” their temperature index for UHI effect (as Gavin claims here) and so I’m puzzled as to how Gavin expects D’Aleo to be able to “know” that they carry out such corrections. And as to GISS adjustments, as we’ve discussed here in the past (and I’ll review briefly), outside the US, they have the odd situation where “negative UHI adjustments” are as common as “positive UHI adjustments”, raising serious questions about whether the method accomplishes anything at all, as opposed to simply being a Marvelous Toy.

    CRU Urban Adjustments?

    The most recent exposition of CRU methodology is Brohan et al 2006, which stated in respect to UHI that they included an allowance of 0.1 deg C/century in the uncertainty, but does not describe any “correction” to the reported average temperature:

    The previous analysis of urbanisation effects in the HadCRUT dataset [Folland et al., 2001] recommended a 1 sigma uncertainty which increased from 0 in 1900 to 0.05 deg C in 1990 (linearly extrapolated after 1990) [Jones et al., 1990]. … To make an urbanisation assessment for all the stations used in the HadCRUT dataset would require suitable meta-data for each station for the whole period since 1850. No such complete meta-data are available, so in this analysis the same value for urbanisation uncertainty is used as in the previous analysis [Folland et al., GRL 2001]; that is, a 1 sigma value of 0.0055 deg C/decade, starting in 1900… The same value is used over the whole land surface, and it is one-sided: recent temperatures may be too high due to urbanisation, but they will not be too low.

    For greater certainty that CRU makes no “correction” for UHI in the actual temperature (only an allowance in the “uncertainty”), Folland et al (GRL 2001) stated:

    We add independent uncertainties due to urbanisation, changing land-based observing practices and SST bias corrections. … The uncertainties given by RSOA due to data gaps and random errors (Figure 1a) were augmented using published estimates of global uncertainties associated with urbanization effects (e.g. Jones et al., 1990),…We assume that the global average LAT uncertainty increased from zero in 1900 to 0.1°C in 1990 (Jones et al, 1990), a value we extrapolate to 0.12°C in 2000 (Figure 1a).

    Both sources clearly stated that they allow for UHI only by a slight increase in their uncertainty factor. Note that even this estimate relies on Jones et al 1990, a study which has been discussed at CA preciously. After Jones refused for years to identify the stations used in the 1990 study, FOI actions obtained this information. We discussed Jones et al 1990 in a number of posts. We observed here that Jones et al 1990 made untrue claims on the quality control for their Chinese network (the falseness of which would rise to misconduct in many fields). Jones et al 1990 described their QC procedures for Chinese stations as follows:

    The stations were selected on the basis of station history; we selected those with few, if any changes in instrumentation, location or observation times.

    I observed at the time that I had been able to track down third-party documentation on stations used in Jones’ China network and that it was “impossible that Jones et al could have carried out the claimed QC procedures.” Doug Keenan followed up on this with a complaint against Wang. As I recall, part of Wang’s defence was that the station histories consulted in 1990 had now been “lost”. So station histories – documents that had survived World War II, the Communist Revolution, the Great Leap Forward, carefully preserved by diligent clerks – were lost or destroyed by climate scientists under the IPCC regime. Hard to believe.

    Be that as it may, Brohan et al 2006 does not say that they make any “correction” to their records for UHI, only that they make a slight increase in “uncertainty” – a completely different thing even in Gavin-World.

    NOAA UHI Adjustments
    The homepage for the NOAA temperature index is here. It cites Smith and Reynolds (2005) as authority. Smith and Reynolds, in turn, state that they use the identical procedure as CRU, i.e. they make an allowance in uncertainty, but do not correct the temperature index itself.

    For LST [land surface temperatures] , bias errors may be caused by urbanization over the twentieth century, and uncertainty due to the use of nonstandard thermometer shelters before 1950 (Jones et al. 1990; Parker 1994; Folland et al. 2001). Here we use the LST bias uncertainty estimates of Folland et al. (2001).

    GISS U.S. Adjustments
    Unlike CRU and NOAA, GISS makes a decent effort to adjust for UHI in the U.S. (outside the USA, its efforts are risible.) A few days ago, I showed the notable difference between the GISS (UHI-adjusted) version in the US and the NOAA unadjusted version, where the difference is much more than 0.1 deg C/century asserted by CRU/NOAA.

    surfacestations.org has made a concerted effort to identify high-quality stations within the USHCN network (CRN1-2 stations) and preliminary indications are that the GISS U.S. estimate will not differ greatly from results from the “best” stations (though there will probably be a little bias.)

    This does not prove that CRU and NOAA estimates are any good. Quite the contrary. It shows that the CRU and NOAA failures to make UHI adjustments along the lines of GISS are introducing a substantial bias in these records.

    GISS ROW Adjustments
    Last year, I reviewed GISS adjustments outside the US in a series of posts. These adjustments are pig’s breakfast. In many cases, GISS makes UHI adjustments the “wrong” way” i.e. their adjustments presume a UHI cooling effect. These goofy results are mentioned passim by Hansen as “false local adjustments”. At the end of the day, there is no evidence that Hansen’s “UHI” adjustments outside the U.S. even begin to deal with the problem. Posts were here here here here here here.

    The difference between the US and ROW arises because the US has a fairly unique backbone of long relatively rural stations (the USHCN network), where, despite all the barbecues and air conditioners and parking lots, an attempt has been made at having weather stations located at non-airport non-urban locations. GISS uses nightlights information to subset this data and to choose a subset as a trend reference. There’s lots to dislike in the execution, but the intent makes sense.

    Outside the US, there is no corresponding network. A lot of the stations are in cities and virtually all of the recent data (post-1990) is from airports. GISS uses hopelessly obsolete population meta-data to supposedly identify “rural” stations, but GISS “rural” is all too often small city (or even large city). Unlike the US, GISS methods don’t find sure ground and thus their adjustments end up being essentially random, mostly reflecting random site relocations and having nothing to do with UHI adjustment. They may say that they adjust for UHI, but this cannot be demonstrated in their actual adjustment, which throws up nonsensical wrong-way adjustments. Even Hansen acknowledges the wrong-way adjustments as being a problem:

    it is difficult to have confidence in the use of urban records for estimating climate change…some urban stations show little or no warming, even a slight cooling relative to rural neighbors. Such results can be a real systematic effect e.g. cooling by planted vegetation or the movement of a thermometer away from the urban center or a random effect of unforced regional variability and measurement errors. Another consideration is that even rural locations may contain some anthropogenic warming.

    And CRU and NOAA don’t even bother.

    “urban heat island effects are corrected for in the surface records”
    Contrary to Gavin’s assertion, there is no evidence that CRU or NOAA correct their records for urban heat island effects. They make a very slight allowance in their “uncertainty” for UHI relying ultimately on an estimate made in Jones et al 1990, a study which made untrue (and impossible) claims about quality control steps.

    The only network where a plausible adjustment is made is the GISS US network (representing less than 2% of the world’s surface, as NASA GISS reminds us.) While GISS US results are plausible, outside the US, the GISS adjustment is a pig’s breakfast and no sane person can claim that they live up to the warranty. What makes this frustrating is that the US temperature history (GISS version) had 1934 as a record year – a result that was at variance with the other indices and other parts of the world. Is this because this is the only network/country combination with an effective UHI adjustment or because of a unique “regional” climate history in the US?

    Whether or not urban heat islands have a material impact on the surface records is a different question. The difference between GISS US results and NOAA US results is strong evidence that there is a noticeable impact – one which needs to be addressed by CRU and NOAA and by GISS outside the US. In my opinion, Gavin’s own statement that “urban heat island effects are corrected for in the surface records” is, to borrow a phrase from realclimate, “disinformation”.

    For the record, I think that Gavin was entitled to complain about the lack of balance or representativeness in the Lou Dobbs panel: whether D’Aleo, Lehr and Wissner-Gross are right or wrong about their points, they are completely unrepresentative of the mainstream climate community, which is surely entitled to complain on that count. My not discussing their solar views here doesn’t mean that I endorse them – Gavin Schmidt and his colleagues spend time deconstructing such analyses; solar proponents should pay attention to criticism regardless of the quarter from which it originates; given that others do such analyses, I think that my time is better spent on issues not covered elsewhere. The fact that there is a legitimate complaint against the construction of the Lou Dobbs panel doesn’t mean that Schmidt should make untrue claims about what CRU and NOAA do in their construction of surface records.

    Joe D’Aleo responds to realclimate here, referring, inter alia, to some CA analyses.

    References:
    Smith, T. M., and R. W. Reynolds (2005), A global merged land air and sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880-1997), J. Climate, 18, 2021-2036.
    Folland, C. K., N. A. Rayner, S. J. Brown, T. M. Smith, S. S P. Shen, D. E. Parker, I. Macadam, P. D. Jones, R. N. Jones, N. Nichols and D. M. H. Sexton (2001), Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861, G.R.L, 28, 13, 2621–24, (2001GL012877).
    Brohan et al 2006,…

    Que nos cuente Gavin …

    Comentario por censurado | 21 enero 2009 | Responder

  5. No voy a perder tiempo ni energia con estos escepticos pero si introducire dos frases sabias, extraidas del libro UNA VERDAD INCOMODA, que a ustedes les vendria muy bien poner la cabeza en remojo y leerlo.
    “NO ES LO QUE NO SABES LO QUE TE METE EN LIOS. ES LO QUE DAS POR CIERTO Y NO LO ES” Mark Twain pag 20

    “ES DIFICIL HACER QUE UN HOMBRE ENTIENDA ALGO CUANDO SU SUELDO DEPENDE DE QUE NO LO ENTIENDA”

    Y muchachos? no les parece que tanto Philip Cooney como Jose Maria Aznar, ambos vinculados a la EXXON, les conviene tqmbien y muy bien pagados para que la gente no lo entienda?
    Este instituto financiado por la EXXON, me parece algo sucio cuando a las petroleras, no les conviene(ganancias de corto plazo) que la gente cambie sus habitos de consumo ante el ENFRIAMIENTO, CALENTAMIENTO U OSCURECIMIENTO GLOBAL ANTROPOGENICO? muy bien por sus cientos de enlaces cientificos sobre controversias y para embarrar el chiquero en que estamos todos; pero de seguro que a ustedes y los que defienden este sistema de pudricion, no tienen muchos links que conduzcan a responsabilidad moral o etica.

    Entonces, leyendo el informe del NOAA, a cerca de las anomalias climaticas 2008 y lo acumulado en registros veridicos, noto confusion de los cientificos, pero no os ilusioneis, el Cambio o Crisis existe gravemente;pero se han dado multiples cambios fuera de lo previsto o no lineales, a mi entender simple, por el quiebre de los patrones del clima; podras decirme censurador, extremista o sin fundamentos cientificos(que ya existen), pero aun no me ha adormecido la adiccion al consumo y tengo presente claramante que es lo que esta pasando, a mi no me engañan las festicholas que hacen como los monos del planeta de los simios, con su baile alrededor del fuego, ahora estos monos esla civilizacion que esta consumiendo los recursos naturales, incendiando el planeta de mugre, mientras se emborrachan de ambicion y codicia.
    Bueno termine opinando, son los deseos de que se pongan del lado correcto y se conviertan en parte de la solucion.
    ¿Cuanto les pagan a ustedes por decir y cuestionar lo que o es cierto?

    Comentario por Fernando Lasagno | 21 enero 2009 | Responder


Responder

Introduce tus datos o haz clic en un icono para iniciar sesión:

Logo de WordPress.com

Estás comentando usando tu cuenta de WordPress.com. Cerrar sesión /  Cambiar )

Google photo

Estás comentando usando tu cuenta de Google. Cerrar sesión /  Cambiar )

Imagen de Twitter

Estás comentando usando tu cuenta de Twitter. Cerrar sesión /  Cambiar )

Foto de Facebook

Estás comentando usando tu cuenta de Facebook. Cerrar sesión /  Cambiar )

Conectando a %s

A %d blogueros les gusta esto: